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Despite inflation easing, global advertising spending is set to grow at a lower rate next year than initially expected, with two forecasts expecting a deceleration to mid-single digits.
Released in November, marketing data firm WARC predicted that advertising spending would rise by 8.2% in 2024 from a modest 4.4% in 2023. However, two new reports from Dentsu and GroupM this week have predicted slower increases of 4.6% and 5.3% respectively, both ahead of expected inflation levels.
If GroupM’s forecast of 5.3% growth next year is correct, that would see spending reach $935.9 billion, excluding U.S. political advertising.
Meanwhile, the Dentsu Global Ad Spend forecast has predicted an important year for the media sector with third-party cookies finally being shelved, resulting in a huge impact on targeting and measurement of digital advertising, while Amazon will also introduce a new ad-supported plan for Prime Video.
It believes that the global advertising market will grow by $33 billion next year, reaching $752.8 billion, due to major media events, including the U.S. presidential election, the Olympics in Paris and UEFA’s European championships tournament in Germany.
Cinema advertising could also see growth with several franchise blockbusters being released such as the latest Kung Fu Panda, Dune, Ghostbusters and Deadpool movies and generative artificial intelligence will mature to become more scalable across various media channels while adding to the threat of print.
“The ad spend data in our report is showing an acceleration in growth throughout 2024, which builds up to an impressive 5.5% year on year increase in Q3 thanks to a number of major sporting events happening then,” Will Swayne, global practice president of media for Dentsu, told Adweek.
Rival media agency business GroupM has forecast at $889 billion (+5.8%), excluding U.S. political advertising for this year, with a deceleration of growth to 5.3%. It also predicts growth in revenue (excluding U.S. political advertising) of 5.6% to $1.2 trillion by 2028.
“We had been expecting more of a deceleration into the future. We’re now looking at innovation through AI and the digitalization of these channels that has pushed us to expect a bit more stable than more sharply decelerating growth,” said Kate Scott Dawkins, president of GroupM’s business intelligence unit.
