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Israel’s National Security adviser suggests that the conflict with Hezbollah may follow the elimination of Hamas. He emphasizes the need to alter the situation in the North to prevent further displacement of residents. This warning follows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s caution about turning Beirut into Gaza. The Israeli National Security adviser expresses concerns about Hezbollah’s Radwan forces potentially crossing the border swiftly and initiating a disruptive rampage in Northern Communities, akin to the October 7th attack by Hamas.
Alon Bastin, a visiting assistant professor and Israel Institute fellow at the University of California, acknowledges Israel’s apprehension. He notes that while there was fear that Hezbollah would join the conflict with Hamas, the group refrained, possibly to avoid dragging Lebanon into a war. Israel is now grappling with the realization that these organizations, constantly training on the border, could pose a real invasion threat.
Highlighting the fear of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces, capable of rapid border-crossing and initiating a similar assault, Israel aims to convey the impracticality of returning to peaceful coexistence near the Lebanon border post the Gaza conflict. Referring to a UN resolution from 2006, Israel stresses the need for diplomatic solutions, pushing Hezbollah away from the border. Israel expresses reluctance to engage on two fronts simultaneously but asserts that if Hezbollah remains a significant threat, it will impose a new reality in the north.
Israel’s historical invasions of Lebanon, including the 1982 takeover, underscore the complexity of the region. The current geopolitical landscape, marked by Iranian militias across multiple countries, adds to the tensions. Israel signals a readiness to confront the Iranian threat from the north, suggesting a potential regional conflict to impose a new reality.
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