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Israel and Hamas continued indirect talks on a cease-fire on Wednesday, but the gap between the sides remained wide, especially on two issues: the length of any pause in fighting, and the fate of Hamas leaders in Gaza, according to officials briefed on the talks.
How are the negotiations going?
A weeklong truce in November allowed the release of more than 100 of the hostages abducted in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel; 240 Palestinian prisoners were released as part of that deal. Since then, both sides have staked out seemingly intractable positions for another such agreement.
The talks have advanced in fits and starts, with the leader of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency meeting Qatari officials in both Qatar and Europe. Many of Hamas’s political leaders are based in Qatar. Egypt, which borders the Gaza Strip, has also played a key role.
The mediators have put forward multiple plans over the past several weeks, thus far with little evident progress. The duration for a proposed cease-fire have ranged from weeks to months. Reports of some of the proposals leaked to the press prompted controversy in Israel, where right-wing politicians said they would oppose plans they said would end the war prematurely.
Brett McGurk, the top Middle East coordinator at the White House, headed back to the region on Sunday to work on freeing hostages, according to two American officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
What terms are being floated for a new cease-fire?
Hamas officials say they will only release the remaining hostages in Gaza, believed to number more than 100, as part of a comprehensive cease-fire. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said on Sunday that he would not accept any deal for a permanent cease-fire that left Hamas in control of Gaza.
Under one recent framework for a deal, mediators proposed a phased release of the remaining hostages and Palestinian prisoners, with the goal of achieving a stable cease-fire, a senior Western diplomat and a regional diplomat said.
What are the key sticking points?
The biggest stumbling block is whether a cease-fire would be designated as temporary, like the last one, or permanent.
Israeli officials have suggested they might consider a permanent cease-fire if Hamas’s Gaza leadership leave the strip and go into exile, the two diplomats said.
Hamas officials have rejected that idea. “Hamas and its leaders are on their land in Gaza,” Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, said in a text message. “We won’t leave.”
Another possible impediment to this plan: Mr. Netanyahu said in November that he had told Mossad “to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are,” likely raising fears within Hamas about whether the leaders would be less safe outside Gaza.
What happens after the war ends?
Another key negotiating track involves the future of the Gaza Strip after the guns fall silent.
Biden administration officials have said they hope the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, will return to control Gaza. U.S. officials would like to see both areas included in a future Palestinian state.
Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007, expelling the rival Fatah party, which dominates the Palestinian Authority. If Hamas remains in Gaza after the war, it would likely prove a formidable obstacle.
Mr. Netanyahu has largely ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority to ruling Gaza, at least in its present form. He has also indicated that he would oppose the establishment of an independent Palestine after the war.
Complicating matters further, the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, faces severe internal challenges. Polls regularly show that most Palestinians want Mr. Abbas to resign. He was last elected to a four-year term in 2005, and his critics accuse him of presiding over an increasingly autocratic regime that has failed to end Israeli rule.
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