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President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is making a whirlwind trip through Berlin and Paris on Friday in a bid to shore up European backing at a critical moment for his country’s fight against Russia, with United States support wavering and Ukraine desperately in need of more arms.
Mr. Zelensky is expected to sign security agreements with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France during his visits to the two leaders’ capitals, before an expected appearance at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
European leaders have been scrambling to offer more support to Ukraine amid growing concerns that a $60 billion United States aid package, which passed the Senate, may yet be scuppered by Republicans in the House.
The security agreements are among a string of such commitments pledged by all Group of 7 members and several other countries to Ukraine at a meeting of NATO allies in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year, a move seen as an attempt to compensate for their reluctance to bring Kyiv quickly into the alliance.
The agreements are meant to provide Ukraine with sufficient security assistance to deter further Russian aggression — including deliveries of key weapons, training of troops and intelligence sharing — and to strengthen Ukraine’s financial stability and help it carry out political and economic overhauls.
Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister, said the security agreements pledged by G-7 members were the best his country had achieved since gaining independence in 1991. But he noted that they do not commit allies to fight on behalf of Ukraine, and instead pledge only to help Ukraine in the event of future aggression.
Through these agreements, Mr. Klimkin said, Ukraine’s allies “will deliver what they can and when they can, which is fundamentally different from delivering what’s needed and when it’s needed.”
“Everything in these agreements will be delivered on the basis of political decisions,” he added. “That’s a big if.”
Ukraine is also in dire need of ammunition, particularly artillery rounds, before what security experts say could be a critical year for its fight against Russia. Ukraine needs an “ammunition bailout,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
“Zelensky knows who his most important allies are right now — Scholz and Macron — but both have to take the next step,” Mr. Kleine-Brockhoff said. “The Europeans stand before a fork in the road: When and if the United States falls to the wayside as a financial support, can they step up?”
Since October, European Union countries and institutions have allocated nearly $5 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine — more than three times as much as the United States has in the same period, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The total aid allocated by the bloc has exceeded that of the United States since August.
This month, European Union leaders pledged 50 billion euros, about $54 billion, in new aid to Ukraine.
Yet to fully replace American military assistance this year, according to the assessment by the Kiel Institute, Europe would still have “to double its current level and pace of arms assistance.”
Chancellor Scholz has been clear that even as Europe ramps up its efforts, it may be impossible to sustain Ukraine’s military campaign without American support.
“Let’s not beat around the bush: Support from the United States is indispensable for the question of whether Ukraine will be able to defend its own country,” Mr. Scholz said after a meeting with President Biden in Washington last week.
Germany, once widely criticized as a laggard on military support to Ukraine, is now second only to Washington in what it has supplied. In November, Berlin announced that it would double its support to $8.5 billion in 2024.
The chancellery is now pushing other countries in Europe to share the burden and offer more weapons deliveries, arguing that it cannot offer any more.
Smaller nations such as Estonia and Latvia, both of which feel threatened by neighboring Russia, followed suit with announcements last month of new military aid packages, including drones and artillery weapons. But there remains a large gap between European aid pledges and actual deliveries.
European Union countries and institutions have committed more than $150 billion in aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion began almost two years ago, but they have allocated only half of that amount, the Kiel Institute said. By contrast, the United States has allocated more than 90 percent of the $73 billion in aid it has pledged.
Last month, Britain, which is not a bloc member, was the first G-7 country to sign one of the pledged security agreements with Ukraine. It includes cooperation in the defense industry, as well as in cybersecurity and maritime security, and states that in the event of future aggression by Russia, both countries “will consult within 24 hours to determine measures needed to counter or deter the aggression.”
France, which has been criticized for sending too little financial and military aid to Ukraine, has tried in recent weeks to highlight its continuing support for Kyiv. Mr. Macron said last month that his country would send Ukraine 40 long-range Scalp missiles, which have proved crucial for striking deep behind enemy lines, as well as “hundreds of bombs.”
To meet Ukraine’s demands, France has also halved the production time for Caesar self-propelled howitzers and plans to produce 78 such cannons this year. France said it would donate 12 of those to Ukraine, while Kyiv has already bought six of them with its own funds. The French authorities hope that other Western allies will help pay for the rest.
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