GroupM’s forecast included an expectation of continued low unemployment rates, business funding, and the availability of venture capital investment and business creation, with the U.S., India and Germany seen to be on the rise in that respect.
It also expects that digital spend, including across YouTube, TikTok, connected TV and digital out-of-home, will be higher than expected, up to 9.2% as opposed to the previously forecasted 8.4%. By 2028, pureplay digital is expected to be larger than the value of the entire advertising industry in 2022, with growth expected to reach 75.5% over the coming five years.
The top advertising sellers from the last six years: Google, Meta, Bytedance, Amazon and Alibaba, have grown by 25.4% over that period. Growth, excluding those players from platforms such as Spotify and Walmart, was found to be just 0.6% each year, showcasing where the majority of digital advertising spend is being directed. This has meant declines in media spending in areas such as broadcast TV and print.
Retail media, which added more than $10 billion to generate around $119.4 billion in revenue this year, should grow by 8.3% next year, with the U.S. and China expected to represent 77.6% of the global market by revenue.
Dentu’s report, which is based on the top 12 markets that represent 86.7% of global spending, believes that The Americas, with 46.9% share of global ad spend, will have the largest growth next year at 5.8% to $353.1 billion, followed by Asia-Pacific (32.0% share) at $158.7 billion with 4% growth, and EMEA (21.1% share) with 2.7% growth to $240.9 billion.
Two sectors expected to experience the highest growth as travel and transport (+7.5%), with an anticipated rise in flight schedules, and pharmaceutical (+7.4%), with increasing focus on health post-pandemic.
It believes that digital ad spending will increase by 6.2% to reach $442.6 billion, with further growth of 6.3% over the next three years, capturing 60% of global ad spend as a result. TV ad spending will climb by 2.9% next year as well.
With the number of hours spent viewing streaming channels growing over the last three years, the average number of hours U.S. audiences will view ads will drop by 17% by 2028, based on the assumption that 30% of all CTV viewing time is ad-free during that period, according to GroupM.
Elsewhere, industry analyst and former GroupM advisor Brian Wieser has predicted that U.S. ad industry revenues (excluding political advertising) will climb 5% to $363 billion in 2023 and rise another 4.3% in 2024.
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